It was the Insurrection's last stand, the Alamo, as it were. Rick Santorum had already effectively conceded his homeland in the Keystone State after deactivating his campaign weeks ago, but team over at the Newt Gingrich headquarters had held out hope of pulling off an upset in Delaware. If only Newt could hit one more Roy Hobbs-style vertical homer up into the rafters and the stadium lights, and then, goodbye Mr. Spalding. But, it was not to be.
Instead, Mitt Romney's night was an effortless mop-up: Mini Super Tuesday--a five state sweep of Rhode Island, Connecticut, Delaware and the Big Enchiladas of Pennsylvania and New York. It wasn't even close. Romney took every county and every Congressional District of the night by wide two-to-one margins or better, leaving Gingrich and Santorum in the distant dust, and giving Ron Paul the slight moral advantage in boasting numerous respectable second place finishes.
Even after Gingrich had dug in along the long vertical corridors of U.S. 13 and I-95 in Delaware, entrenching his forces like the French at Dien Bien Phu, the best the former Speaker could do was in Kent County, where he pulled in roughly 34% percent (to Romney's 50%) and where Gingrich set the night's high-water mark for the anti-Romney vote.
Most of Romney's victories were heavily lopsided. In the suburban and exurban counties around Philadelphia, Romney's wins were staggering: Bucks County by 67%; Montgomery County, 67%; Delaware County, 65%; Chester County, 65%. Santorum fared little better in the areas around Pittsburgh; Romney won two-to-one in Allegheny County, Westmoreland County, Beaver County, and Washington County. In the Empire State, close to New York City, Romney won by equally impressive margins: Suffolk County, 73%; Nassau County, 76%; Queens, 68%; Staten Island, 74%. In the more conservative western part of the state, Gingrich managed to squeak out wins in the low 20's, but Romney still won two-to-one in Monroe County (Rochester), Chautauqua County, and Erie County (Buffalo).
In Rhode Island, the Santorum/Gingrich forces fell so low that it appeared Paul had picked up nearly all that remained of insurrection energy, and the Texas congressman managed impressive second-place finishes. Still, Romney carried the total of the Ocean State by a lopsided 63%. In neighboring Connecticut, Romney won by 67%. Again the same dynamic prevailed--Ron Paul pulled in a solid second in every county, leaving Santorum and Gingrich largely in single digits. In Fairfield County, which includes Stanford and Bridgeport, Romney won by 74%, one of the widest margins of the whole night.
Even across parts of Pennsylvania which in the not-too-distant past would have been regarded as solid Santorum country, Romney's sweep was total. This territory had been, until three weeks ago, seen as Santorum's long shot opportunity to spark additional momentum. The theory was sound enough: if he could win big in the Keystone State, he could define it as a surge, whereupon the resulting media buzz would generate more fundraising clout, and the insurrection might survive long enough to march into the other reliably conservative lands of Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas, Kentucky and beyond. It was the Hail Mary pass that never happened, and in that vacuum left by an inactive Santorum, Romney was able to take every county in Pennsylvania.
Delaware had been Gingrich's last stand. Starting Wednesday, rumors began to circulate that Gingrich might bow out completely as early as next week, leaving Ron Paul as the only candidate with active, on-the-ground operations to compete with Romney. Internal differences over fundraising and campaign priorities brought about the resignations of a couple of key Gingrich staffers, the second time in 12 months the Speaker's top management team has faced a significant shake-up.
With an insurmountable lead in the delegate count, Romney is the de facto Republican nominee. Now, after four years of more-or-less continuous campaigning for President, the former governor of Massachusetts and the one time Olympics CEO can turn his back to the smoldering ashes of the insurrectionist movement in the GOP and instead talk directly to the American people about...well...shall we quote James Carville's best line?
Blunt talk about the economy will surely be Romney's best weapon. In his speech to supporters Tuesday night, Romney spoke numerous times about economic fairness. Predictably, this new tact carries both enormous possibility and grave risk.
On the high risk side, Romney--by linking himself to the word fairness--will surely be attacked mercilessly by liberal Democrats for a variety of transgressions, among them, his enormous personal wealth, his social and cultural detachment from poor and middle class Americans, and his role as private equity specialist with Bain Capital. Some of this ordnance has already been field tested by his Republican opponents through the arduous season of debates, primaries and caucuses. Now, President Obama's top strategists in Washington and Chicago will no doubt seek to portray Romney as profoundly out-of-touch with the realities of middle-income and lower-income Americans, and as someone essentially a part of the darker and greedier, mega-money side of capitalism. Resentment can be an effective tool, and, besides, some liberals feel they own the trademark on the words fair and fairness.
On the positive side, Romney may find that economic issues carry the most immediate sway among voters of all the broad categories. Romney, as has been well-advertised in the media and the political press, is suffering from favorability deficits among a variety of voting blocs--women, younger voters, Latinos, independent voters, Catholics, and even some segments of what used to be called Reagan Democrats. Though it is important to resist the notion that any of these demographic groups move in political lockstep or vote in a monolithic fashion, the reality for Romney is that he must now start winning back the hearts and minds of at least some of these voters. Economic pain often cuts universally, affecting voters of nearly all stripes, and this recession has been largely indifferent to the Red-Blue divide. Millions of Americans are still unemployed or under-employed; home prices remain stubbornly unmoved; and gas prices at the pump and energy costs at home still pose a constant and looming threat to recovery.
Romney, therefore, may find Ronald Reagan's famous rhetorical questions useful: are you better off today than you were four years ago? Is it easier now for you to go and buy things in the stores than it was four years ago? Back in 1980, after months of suffering suspicion and reluctance among some of the same voting blocs which now haunt Romney, Reagan may have sealed his victory over incumbent Jimmy Carter with those simple sentences during his closing remarks at the end of a famous debate.
Meanwhile, President Obama is leaving little to chance--he campaigns in front of college campus crowds, industrial workers and manufacturing employees, and any venue which might provide exposure to independent voters. Obama understands perhaps more clearly than anyone the risk a bad economy poses for his re-election.
On Tuesday, after days of discussion in Washington about the spiraling cost of student loans--which are threatening to overtake all credit card debt and car loan costs combined among younger Americans--the President spoke to a huge crowd of students at Chapel Hill, North Carolina, and then later the same day to student in Colorado. Among other things, he told those young listeners that he and First Lady Michelle Obama had managed to pay off their own student loans, but only after great struggle. The President and his political strategists clearly hope also to reignite the passion of younger, idealistic voters--the same voters who helped propel his candidacy successfully through the early primary and caucus states four years ago in his long fight with Hillary Clinton.
Copyright 2012, Thursday Review
Road Show is published each week by Thursday Review publications, copyright 2008, 2012
